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  #1  
Old 01-25-2010, 11:26 PM
haamimhagolan haamimhagolan is offline
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Default Iran Closes In On the Bomb

An article in the German publication alledges that Germany's intelligence agencies have received new information that confirms that Iran is rapidly closing in on the ability to build a nuclear weapon.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1145015.html
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

According to assessments from German intelligence, now being reviewed with US and Israeli intelligence officials, Iran could potentially build a crude nuclear warhead by year-end, and could potentially have a miniaturized warhead, capable of being fitted to a Shahab ballistic missile as early as 2012. According to the report, Iran is also in possession of blueprints for a nuclear warhead design, possibly supplied from an outside source (most likely Pakistan or North Korea).
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  #2  
Old 01-26-2010, 02:40 AM
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It's just a matter of time before we can say, "We told you so" "Iran was making a bomb!"
And the IAEA and liberals can *** in their pants.
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Old 01-26-2010, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
It's just a matter of time before we can say, "We told you so" "Iran was making a bomb!"
And the IAEA and liberals can *** in their pants.
Well, probably they will, but problem is what to do....
And from my prospective it looks this way :

1. Israel missed the window of opportunity.
They should attack Iran between 2001 and 2007.
Before Ramsfeld had resigned.
In 2006 Cheney literally asked them to do it.

2. In current situation Iran is in better position than Israel.
Iran can attack Israel from Lebanon, Gaza and probably Syria.
Israel will have to go all the way from Israel to Iran trough hostile
air space.

3. IMHO the only way for Israel to achieve a convincing victory and
stop Iran - is use of tactical nukes and I doubt Bibi has enough guts
to do it.
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Old 01-27-2010, 01:47 AM
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Well if Iran really gets a nuke, it will actually be the first victory for Israel, because the skeptics outnumber the believers, and now they will see the truth. The second part will be to disarm Iran, will the world or atleast America and some traditional allies do it? Will depend how hostile Iran and America are at that moment, and who is the Persident in the U.S.

One way or another Israel will then have to use force to disarm Iran, but as you said the window of opportunity was best a few years ago, and not after they have the bomb, that they could start by using on Israel.
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Old 01-27-2010, 03:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
Well if Iran really gets a nuke, it will actually be the first victory for Israel, because the skeptics outnumber the believers, and now they will see the truth. The second part will be to disarm Iran, will the world or atleast America and some traditional allies do it? Will depend how hostile Iran and America are at that moment, and who is the Persident in the U.S.

One way or another Israel will then have to use force to disarm Iran, but as you said the window of opportunity was best a few years ago, and not after they have the bomb, that they could start by using on Israel.
while your line of reasoning isn't idiotic (i would never accuse you of that), i would have to say that it is somewhat naive...

countries just dont CARE that Iran is gonna have a bomb, everyone KNOWS theyre developing bombs, they have jsut gotten into an isolationist mindset that won;t allow them to think farther ahead as to the implications of a nuclear Iran...

Europe is not the continent it once was (for good or for bad), following the two world wars it has lost any will to fight and sacrifice for whats right...
Just look at the way Europeans now live, theyve created a utopian society of sorts, but for how long is it sustainable? the europeans are mortaging their futures and their children's futures so they can live life to the fullest...

so its not that Europeans are skeptical as to Irans true intentions, its that they just dont CARE...

As to the rest of the world, they do whatever bodes well (in their view) for their own interests, they simply dont care how it will affect a tiny country, even if it is the only one for a persecuted peoples...

the only country which could actually be depended upon to both CARE and stand by our side is the U.S., and thats only because the public tends to be very supportive of us, and every politican knows that completely abandoning Israel is political suicide (though more subtle approaches which wouldnt create a big buzz are sometimes broguht up, ex.freezing loan guarantees to israel etc.)

so I can guarantee you (and i know that doesnt mean much considering i cant put much behind that guarantee at the moment) that even if the world had 100% definitive proof that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons (or had them), nothing would change...
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Old 01-27-2010, 04:07 AM
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My apology to you, New Ron, as I always try to treat moderators with respect.

But I think Joe is right. The people who wanted to ignore Iran's nuclear program are the same people who either don't care if Iran goes nuclear, or actually look forward to a nuclear Iran.

Saying "I told you so" to them is meaningless. These are evil people who gloat at the idea of Tel Aviv being destroyed.

There are evil people in this world. And most of them are anti-Semites.
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Old 01-27-2010, 06:20 AM
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My point was not who will gloat or care, but when it happens Israel and people like us will be prooved right. Should action have been done to stop it ofcourse! Ive been saying that for eternity now. And I said it will depend who is President and how at that time the relations between Iran and the US is. The US did go to war against Iraq and Afghanistan, and they can do it to Iran, if the right President is in place. Like I said it will be up to Israel more likely.

And actually it has been the U.S. who has been the most skeptikal about Irans nuclear program, not Europe, Europe has been pushing for more action than America these past few years, even during the Bush era! Just not enough action, nor the right kind of action, for me it is force they need to use, but people are scared to do so.

As for people not caring that some of us will say I told you so isnt my problem, many of us will still have the pleasure to say it, and feel it, for truth has been revealed, but the blind do not see, and the deaf do not hear, nothing new about humankind there!

Thanks for your input guys, and no worries this forum is for giving our opinions freely!
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Old 01-27-2010, 07:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
My point was not who will gloat or care, but when it happens Israel and people like us will be prooved right. Should action have been done to stop it ofcourse! Ive been saying that for eternity now. And I said it will depend who is President and how at that time the relations between Iran and the US is. The US did go to war against Iraq and Afghanistan, and they can do it to Iran, if the right President is in place. Like I said it will be up to Israel more likely.

And actually it has been the U.S. who has been the most skeptikal about Irans nuclear program, not Europe, Europe has been pushing for more action than America these past few years, even during the Bush era! Just not enough action, nor the right kind of action, for me it is force they need to use, but people are scared to do so.

As for people not caring that some of us will say I told you so isnt my problem, many of us will still have the pleasure to say it, and feel it, for truth has been revealed, but the blind do not see, and the deaf do not hear, nothing new about humankind there!

Thanks for your input guys, and no worries this forum is for giving our opinions freely!
what sort of action has europe proposed? so far, other than some remarks by Sarkozy or some other european leader, they have done nothing but talk and work to stop any significant action from being taken against Iran...

Who do you think has some of the closest economical ties to Iran and has supplied much of the equipment that was needed for iran's nuclear program? its Germany...

The U.S. on the other hand, has repeatedly tried to pass sanctions, though its clear to everyone that they will never be passed as Russia, China, and Europe simply have no interest and will continue to oppose them...

But even the U.S. shied away from putting its full might behind any sanctions, and although Obama passed a law which entitled him to place sanctions upon crude oil imports into Iran (Iran imports 40% of its crude oil), he has stuck to only placing sanctions on the revolutionary guards, a course of action that's not all that effective...

I think you can probably see from what ive written up to this point that in my view, like always, Israel can only depend on itself, and at the very most, would be able to drag the Americans into conducting an air-offensive against Iran's nuclear+military infrastructures following an israeli one...
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Old 01-27-2010, 08:41 AM
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Yes Israel can rely on itself only these days.

I was reffering to the most important the intel. Its the intel that allows any country to really justify some kind of action, but for a some years now, until very recently the United States has been singing the song that Iran has ended their nuclear weapons program. (Despite anything else they said, when you say that the CIA sees no threat it means you see no threat! Those were the days that Bush, unlike Cheney didnt want to use force against Iran anymore or something.) Several European intelligence agencies cried foul, and insisted that this isnt the truth at all. This then weakened America's resolve to take action, yes it was surprisingly people like Sarkozy who insisted that American intel is wrong and that the world must act. No one really did anything about it, just alot of talk. Bush did keep a strong stance on Iran, and yes in the past years the US did try to pass tougher sanctions and many in Europe and the world were not very interested.

Germany and Great Briton have alot of investments in Iran, anything happening in Iran would bother them alot.

When Obama came to power, he wanted to dance with Iran but failed, but at the same time showed a weak face of America that Iran just laughed off.
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Old 01-27-2010, 08:50 AM
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Default America NOW sees the truth years after they dismissed it....

US intelligence suggests Tehran never halted nuclear programme
20 January 2010


REUTERS - U.S. spy agencies updating intelligence on Iran see growing evidence that Tehran has pushed forward with nuclear weapons research but has yet to relaunch its atomic bomb program in full, U.S. officials said.

Analysts from across the U.S. intelligence community have been finalizing a revised national intelligence estimate (NIE) that is expected to bring the United States more into line with its European allies about the state of Iran’s nuclear program.

The key assertions of the 2007 NIE—that Iran halted its nuclear weapon design and weaponization work, as well as its covert uranium conversion and uranium enrichment related-activities in 2003 -- have long been disputed by some European spy agencies.

U.S. officials have signaled that at least some of those 2007 assertions will require revision. But they expected nuanced rather than wholesale changes to the assessment in the new NIE, which could be completed within weeks.

"Basically, we’re talking about research (resuming) -- not about the Iranians barreling full steam ahead on a bomb program," a U.S. official said on condition of anonymity.

"When you’re looking at the Iranian nuclear program, nuance matters," the official added.

It is unclear if or when a declassified version of a new NIE on Iran will be released publicly.



See full story here: http://www.france24.com/en/20100120-...-research-iran
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Old 01-27-2010, 08:58 AM
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How come the rest of us knew this all along just by seeing Irans suspicious behaviour, its lies about how much rich its been enriching, its lies about its facilities, and tricking the IAEA, when Iran has signed the non proliferation treaty, has assured everyone its only for energy, and even go as far as making a fatwa saying they will never use it for ilitary purposes, all the while enriching the uranium to weapons grade, as identified by IAEA inspectors, all the while talking with Pakistans nuclear scientists on how to make military use.....and with all that the US and the world still refuse to admit that Iran is on the verge of making a bomb, that will be almost exclusivly to hold Israel "hostage" (Well they will try anyway) or eventually bomb Israel when Iran sees it fit!

Bad things need to happen then the world will say, ok lets do something now....too late. But truth will always end up on Israels side, this was my point all along.
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Old 01-27-2010, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
Yes Israel can rely on itself only these days.

I was reffering to the most important the intel. Its the intel that allows any country to really justify some kind of action, but for a some years now, until very recently the United States has been singing the song that Iran has ended their nuclear weapons program. (Despite anything else they said, when you say that the CIA sees no threat it means you see no threat! Those were the days that Bush, unlike Cheney didnt want to use force against Iran anymore or something.) Several European intelligence agencies cried foul, and insisted that this isnt the truth at all. This then weakened America's resolve to take action, yes it was surprisingly people like Sarkozy who insisted that American intel is wrong and that the world must act. No one really did anything about it, just alot of talk. Bush did keep a strong stance on Iran, and yes in the past years the US did try to pass tougher sanctions and many in Europe and the world were not very interested.

Germany and Great Briton have alot of investments in Iran, anything happening in Iran would bother them alot.

When Obama came to power, he wanted to dance with Iran but failed, but at the same time showed a weak face of America that Iran just laughed off.
you're talking about the NIE which was written in 2007 under Bush's administration...

you have to understand what kind of environment this report came out of, to realize that America's intelligence services never actually believed Iran halted their nuclear program...

for several months before the release of the NIE, the Bush administration was raising the tension level by continuously publishing reports about Iran's nuclear program and there was a big buzz about it, people were sure that it was only a matter of time before the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites, most people (including me) were convinced Bush would order a strike on Iran before his term ended, to avoid leaving the problem to an inexperienced and untested president who he wasnt sure would act....

but as tensions were rising and the winds of war were about, the American intelligence community, which suffered extensive damage to its credibility because of the now infamous reports on Iraqi WMD's, which were cited as the primary cause for the second gulf war, that proved to be false, were worried that Bush would use their information and data to justify opening another front in the war on terror (along with Iraq and Afghanistan)...

so they quickly published a report which denied the fact that Iran had continued developing its nuclear program after the 2003 invasion of Iraq (during which it really did put its nuclear program on hold by most accounts), to cover their own asses in case Bush decided to strike...

even at the time the NIE was published, i dont recall seeing a single representative from any branch of the intelligence community stand up and support this report, rather, everyone said that it went contrary to everything they knew, but the report achieved its aim and lowered tensions+brought Iran's nuclear program off the news media's watch list to this day...
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Old 01-27-2010, 09:29 AM
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This is what I mean politics plays with truth, and at that time not only did the US want to play down tensions, it had also decided not to act! When everything showed if they didnt act then Iran would get the bomb. Ofcourse it would have been so hard to fight Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran, and we could have all been in for the toughest economic ride, not to mention casualty rates,which was already getting bad, and that being two reasons America voted for Obama (As if past wars like WWII had no casualties! People are dumb!)

At that time was the right time to strike Iran as you mentioned, but it wasnt done for the reasons mentioned, among others you mentioned also, but the result is the same Iran will get the damn bomb and now what?!

Personally I think Iran was more urgent than Irak, but just as you mentioned you felt Bush would do for Iran, soon after Sept 11, Bush got to thinking seriously about the middle east and didnt want to leave Iraq again to another stupid leader who would do nothing, so he rushed things. But leaving Iraq while Iran is not taken care of, is dangerous for both Iraq and the rest of the middle east, as Iran will attempt to strenthen its arm by "taking parts" of Iraq. Well I suggest the following, who cares lets watch as the Iraqis and arabs, and Iranians battle it out, then when they begin to turn against Israel as they will always do.....we bomb them to hell! (We can mean anyone ready to bomb Iran to hell.)

I'm still all for a first strike against Irans nuclear facilities, anytime anyday! It's Pre-emptive action at its best, and who cares what the world thinks, says or does, one way or another Israel will get blamed anyway!
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Last edited by New Ron; 01-27-2010 at 09:36 AM..
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Old 01-27-2010, 10:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron
Yes Israel can rely on itself only these days.

Exactly !!!



Europe is powerless. Europe is only interested in talking. Europe does not want to upset the indigenous restive young Muslims on the home front. Europe needs M.E. oil. In addition, they do not exactly love us, to begin with.

The Chinese want the oil.

The Russians want to sell military hardware.

The American administration is hostile towards Israel and the politically-weak POTUS is a pacifist.




Don't wait for the world to react against the mullahs. It will never happen.

The mullah multi-tiered nuclear weapons programs are opaque, dispersed, and hardened.

At this point, it is all but inevitable.
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Old 01-27-2010, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
My point was not who will gloat or care, but when it happens Israel and people like us will be prooved right.
So what ?
Precious time has already been lost.
The chess rule - if you wasted your move, you can loose the game.

Beside it's Israel itself, particularly President Shimon Peres
( not some outsiders ), who substituted real actions, by the mantra
"Iran's problem is not just Israel,
but it is international case."

Sorry, but in this case it is Israelis who misleaded themselves.
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Old 01-27-2010, 04:46 PM
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And I'm sorry, but Shimon Peres does not represent "people like us" category. There were plenty of Israeli politicians who have been raising the alarm bell, and people like us who have been without tire calling for alarm, the victory will be for us, who in exaustion have been trying to warn X, Y Z, if any of you dont feel a sense of victory when the truth will be revealed then, thats you, as far as I am concerned I will!
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Old 01-27-2010, 06:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Ron View Post
And I'm sorry, but Shimon Peres does not represent "people like us" category. There were plenty of Israeli politicians who have been raising the alarm bell, and people like us who have been without tire calling for alarm, the victory will be for us, who in exaustion have been trying to warn X, Y Z, if any of you dont feel a sense of victory when the truth will be revealed then, thats you, as far as I am concerned I will!
I think you're expecting too much from such a realization....

it will make the news for a few days and then everyone will go on living their lvies, completely forgetting that people like you warned them such a thing would happen...

i personally think you would feel a great sense of happyness as you are proven to have been right, followed by a bitter feeling of resentment as you realize that still no one cares...
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Old 01-27-2010, 07:27 PM
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I wasnt born yesterday, I know very well, and haved lived long enough to expect that many will not care, and that the right action will not be taken, that will in no way take away the feelings of victory when what Ive been saying for years is revealed not by cnn or cia, but by the Iranians themselves when they annouce their newest slander and evil action that they have once again dared with no shame to do! Just like the Koreans and Pakistanis did!

I dont know why many of you guys think I go in life expecting others to be just, and then get dissapointed, I am not your average politically on the left dumbo who thinks the world is made of sugar and cookies, if I was I would not have such strong views on things! The world has so much evil in it, and Ive survived some pretty evil atacks myself, I am in no way "expecting" anything from the world, I am simply stating my feelings and others like me, when the truth comes out! And you will see some out there who didnt believe look so stupid when that happens. If they dont feel stupid, we wil make make them look as stupid as possible until they crawl the earth naked!
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Old 01-27-2010, 07:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joejd12 View Post
it will make the news for a few days and then everyone will go on living their lvies, completely forgetting that people like you warned them such a thing would happen...
This is the part we can agree to disagree on, people will not go living their lives, (Oh as youve said, they would certainly have wanted to!) they will at first plan to have a "who cares" attitude, but Iran will not waste time using their nukes as a "weapon" and whether or not the world cares, it will make frontline stories as a major tensions will begin to explode in the entire middle east! Not just Israel who will be worried, but Arab states, and the nuke race could just as well begin, turning the middle east into one big "cold war" like atmosphere. Ofcourse all the muslim countries will try to "blame" Israel that this happened, but the middle east will begin the broil process, and even if the word tries it will not be able to ignore it, as anything that happens in the Middle east will ripple in so many negative ways in every nation in the world!

I know for one after alot of finger pointing by different countries, they will all realize that this is a potential crisis, will they do the "right" thing? I highly doubt it, actually one thing we can all agree on many will point fingers at Israel, but unlike what many of you have suggested they will not be able to take it lightly, the situation will threaten an already broken middle east, terrorists of all sides will be electrified for for and against, the United States will feel obliged to send more nuclear warships and subs to protect Israel and their own economic interests in the region, Russia will call it an act of war by the United States, this will cause panic in every so-called civilized nation, the stock markets of the world will go nuts, and so much the better for it, because everyone should have listened to the warning signs!

I may be an alarmist, and Iran may never use the weapon, (Yeah right) but I'm certainly not naive!
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Last edited by New Ron; 01-27-2010 at 07:59 PM..
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Old 01-27-2010, 11:21 PM
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just came by this article, think it might help to illustrate my point...

the israeli government just put a report togetherthat outlines the economical activity between europe and Iran, the numbers are pretty huge...

hebrew:
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3840735,00.html

english:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...840782,00.html
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