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  #41  
Old 02-23-2010, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by betgilson View Post
have already begone with this or are about to do.
They can also have a hidden facility elsewhere enriching Uranium at this very moment. They never tell all truth.

When they say the truth ... WE ARE WORKING ON THE BOMB"

then they would be attacked on the next day by Israel
I don't think so.
There were enough excuses for Israel to attack.
There enough Iran's violations of UN resolutions;
enough claims that Israel should be destroyed.
and Israel did not attack.

I don't believe that only reason that prevents Israel from attacking Iran,
is that Iran should directly say "WE ARE WORKING ON THE BOMB".
Did Israel needed it with Iraq, Syria ?
I would not even consider it as serious reason.

IMHO real reason for Israel do not attack Iran is -
Israel could not seriously harm Iran using conventional weapons.
On the contrary , it's Iran who has an advantage in this fight :
positions in Lebanon, Syria, probably Gaza.
So only real option for Israel to win - use nuclear bomb and
Israel leadership is afraid of using this option.
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  #42  
Old 02-24-2010, 12:41 AM
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explanation. I think you are right. But now Iran is definetely working on the bomb (I guess it has been always working on)

hard times coming anyway
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  #43  
Old 03-03-2010, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by haamimhagolan View Post
An article in the German publication alledges that Germany's intelligence agencies have received new information that confirms that Iran is rapidly closing in on the ability to build a nuclear weapon.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1145015.html
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

According to assessments from German intelligence, now being reviewed with US and Israeli intelligence officials, Iran could potentially build a crude nuclear warhead by year-end, and could potentially have a miniaturized warhead, capable of being fitted to a Shahab ballistic missile as early as 2012. According to the report, Iran is also in possession of blueprints for a nuclear warhead design, possibly supplied from an outside source (most likely Pakistan or North Korea).
N.Korean is...they are sick just as ayatollah...They also Helped with iranian space program(damn i got the all countries rocket's but which CD it was.ahh),,and their rocket was also for "Scientific purposes wearing two mouses and reptiles" gimme a break...Korea claimed the same but...it was satellite.

I personally don't bellieve that they will go on directly on warhead for Shahab but at firs they will try to make atomic bomb's(hense they got several MIG-33 and other high speed and altitude aircraft that would be capable of delivering nuke.

Shahab test's and all propaganda is for keeping sadr under control..in Iraq and also that Iran want's to be a regional leader-any attack of iran Dirrectly to israel for now has low chances...(tey support hezbollah-israel has suffered more from Hezbollah than any other terrorist(and Damn they are well trained and good fighter's thus are becoming political power-this is bad,so i think that maybe a test for Iran is good-send F-15's to bomb beirut airport-and measure the Electro Cardiogram).

Quote:
It's just a matter of time before we can say, "We told you so" "Iran was making a bomb!"
And the IAEA and liberals can *** in their pants.
IAEA know-Part of their inspector's were CIA agents so that's why now Iran does not allow even fly to get inside underground.

At first i think that tey will try to copy US mod B-61 if they want maximum damage-possible target is Dimona Israeli Reactor.(because use of high speed and velocity thus dropping the bomb over a reactor would be terror...No country in the world would allow this(if there is exception's and we know them-treatment is psychiatry)

And don't be afraid-there is still no need for panic if we considered that Iran announced that for one year they succeed to produce 20% enriched Uranium...but for fission enrichment must be higher than 95% or if they want Cannon HEU for navy than 98%..(or for Ground forces)Meaning under full capacity iran for five years would have enough uranium in order to make N-bomb/orN-warhed(they detonate on the same principle-but this is not a thread)..thus there will be indicator's for this such lack of energy.

Shahab 3 already has Israel within range and that tell's us that Iran is not planing to use it..

WHY??

Well they are working ov Shahab-4 who will have many US bases arround the world(including those with B-2 block 30),thus EU and NATO will also be potential target's...but primary are suni's most saudy arabia because cooperation with 'non-believers'+ Iranians are shia..their plan is to overtake control of Iraq that's why i consider DUMB IDEA(ahh obama oobamm withdrawing Coalition forces)


And Ron you are right THEY ARE DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS...i mean we have radical regime which is developing BM's thus in the same time has 'human NP program for civilian purpose '....

Thus...Russia did what they can..

Quote:
A previous deal offered by Russia and France to enrich and process Iranian nuclear fuel failed to materialize after Iran refused to send the greater part of its stock of low-enriched uranium - some 400 kilograms - abroad in a single consignment.
Russia is near and is the best option...Bulgaria also buy's russian enrichent uranium.

Quote:
Japan offers to enrich Iran's uranium

Japan's offer was first mooted in December following approval from the United States, during a visit to Tokyo by Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, the Japanese paper said.

On Tuesday the U.S. warned Iran that "patience is running out" over its nuclear program, adding that Tehran has shown no interest in addressing the West's fears over its controversial uranium enrichment.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs repeated U.S. warnings of "consequences" if Iran continues to enrich uranium.

"It is clear that the continuing announcements and pronouncements that are made in Iran demonstrate that they have no interest in building international confidence that their nuclear program is for peaceful means," Gibbs added
Even Japan get involved here..

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1151984.html


Interesting....

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1151234.html



But one is sure...they will need 5 year's to obtain USEFUL nuclear BM(such as Russian Iskander or maybe Smaller Mod of Topol-M with MIRV's that deflect laser enery,and has maneuver capability(they are even earlyn testing such project's).
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  #44  
Old 03-11-2010, 11:04 AM
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A short historical survey of the evolution of Israel's missile defense and preemptive options - vis-a-vis Iraq, Syria, and now Iran - as presented by Dr Moshe Arens (three-time former Defense Minister).
http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/S...tack_on_Israel

I can recall vividly Dr Arens opposition to Israel's restraint in the 1991 Gulf War, when the IDF refrained from taking concrete action in response to Iraq's Scud missile barrage. Always interesting to see the perspective of someone who has held that kind of responsibility (even if I haven't always agreed with everything that they suggest).
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Old 04-21-2010, 05:01 PM
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  #46  
Old 04-22-2010, 03:17 PM
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  #47  
Old 05-12-2010, 02:36 AM
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There is one point I want to add to this discussion.

Some news media suggest that it may be another year until Iran has produced a bomb, and another year after that (or even more) until Iran has produced a missile warhead.

This may be true. But this is not Israel's deadline.

Israel's deadline will come when Iran's program is no longer stoppable--that is, when Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium in gas form for a nuke and then converted it to metal. Because at that point, construction of the first nuke ceases to be an industrial level chemical engineering project, but rather becomes a mere machine shop task. And although Iran may have several enrichment plants, there must certainly be thousands of machine shops in Iran--too many, and too small to identify and bomb all, in any event. (Don't misunderstand me--continued production of subsequent nukes will require continued output from the enrichment plants, of course. But at this point, the first nuke will be inevitable.)
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  #48  
Old 06-01-2010, 02:04 PM
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Arrow Iran Has Fuel for 2 Nukes, IAEA Says




VIENNA (AP) — Iran has amassed more than two tons of enriched uranium, the U.N. atomic agency said Monday in a report that heightened Western concerns about the country developing the ability to produce a nuclear weapon.

Two tons of uranium would be enough for two nuclear warheads, although Iran says it does not want weapons and is only pursuing civilian nuclear energy.

The U.S. and the four other permanent U.N. Security Council members — Russia, China, Britain and France — have tentatively backed a draft fourth set of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its refusal to stop enriching uranium.

Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency — the U.N. nuclear watchdog — said Syria continues to stonewall agency reports to follow up on U.S. assertions that a facility destroyed three years ago by Israeli warplanes was a secretly built reactor meant to produce plutonium.

"Syria has not cooperated with the agency since June 2008" on most aspects of its investigation, according to the IAEA's Syria report. But it noted that Syria has admitted to small-scale nuclear experiments that it had previously not owned up to.

Syria denies allegations it was being helped by Iran and North Korea in developing a covert program.

But diplomats familiar with the Syria probe told The Associated Press of a visit to Syria in January by a high-ranking Iranian nuclear delegation led by Mahdi Kaniki, a deputy to Ali Akhbar Salehi, an Iranian deputy president and head of his country's nuclear program. The two diplomats asked for anonymity because their information was confidential.

For seven months, Iran refused to accept a deal brokered by the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency that foresaw Iran exporting 2,640 pounds (1,200 kilograms) of low-enriched uranium to Russia and France to be turned into fuel for Tehran's research reactor.

The West backed that offer because it would have committed Iran to exporting most of the enriched uranium it had produced and left it with less than the 2,200 pounds (1,000 kilograms) of material needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb.

Iran rejected the offer then but now says it is ready to ship out the same amount of material and has enlisted the backing of Turkey and Brazil in trying to reach a compromise and derail the new sanctions push.

Iran insists it has no interest in nuclear weapons. But its refusal to stop enrichment — which can create both nuclear fuel and warhead material — and its stonewalling of IAEA efforts to investigate suspicions it is interested in developing such arms have increased international worry.

The restricted International Atomic Energy Agency report said that the IAEA "remains concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities, involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

On enrichment, the report made available to the AP shortly after release to the U.N. Security Council and the IAEA's 35-nation board said Iran had now enriched 2,427 kilograms to just over three percent level.

That means shipping out 2,640 pounds (1,200 kilograms) now would still leave Iran with more than enough material to make a nuclear weapon. That makes the deal unattractive to the U.S and its allies.

The report confirmed that Iran continues a separate program of small-scale enrichment of uranium, using 3.5 percent feedstock and enriching to near 20 percent — another hurdle for the West. Iran could produce weapons grade uranium much more quickly from the 20 percent level, making the separate program another hurdle to any fuel swap deal.

The U.S. and its allies view Tehran's insistence on continuing higher enrichment even as it offers to accept the swap deal with suspicion since it originally said it had to enrich to 20 percent as the first step in making fuel for the Tehran research reactor.

The IAEA also said that equipment had been removed from a laboratory it was investigating, confirming a report last week to the AP from diplomats familiar with the issue.

At issue is pyroprocessing, a procedure that can be used to purify uranium metal used in nuclear warheads.

In January, Iran told the agency that it had carried out pyroprocessing experiments, prompting a request from the nuclear agency for more information — but then backtracked in March and denied conducting such activities....

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  #49  
Old 06-12-2010, 03:58 PM
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Default Saudis air corridor is open, US, Israel self-immobilized on Iran

Saudis air corridor is open, US, Israel self-immobilized on Iran
The Saudi air corridor offered Israel for an attack on Iran reported in the London Times of Saturday, June 12, was an old story rehashed by Riyadh in the hope of egging the US and Israel on to break free of their self-imposed restraints and halt Iran's drive for a nuclear bomb before it is too late.

debkafile's Middle East sources report the explosive developments of the last two weeks, primarily the meteoric rise of a thrusting partnership between the two non-Arab powers, Turkey and Iran, have badly rattled Arab capitals, especially when they see the Obama administration and Netanyahu government immersed in tying themselves and each other in knots over the format of an inquiry into Turkish flotilla incident.

The London Times reported that Saudi Arabia had conducted tests to stand down its air defenses to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Riyadh was said to have agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defense systems not activated.
“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defense source in the area.

Sources in Saudi Arabia say, "It is common knowledge within defense circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions."

debkafile adds: Appearing in the week UN sanctions were approved against Iran, this report amounted to a Saudi no-confidence vote in its value.

Low expectations of the sanctions are no secret in Washington either. According to the New York Times, the Obama administration has prepared Plans A, B, C. and D, if sanctions fail to stop Iran's push for a nuke. No details were published, but the NYT quoted Barak Obama as noting in April: "…once Iran passes a certain point, it may be impossible to know when it has taken the last steps to manufacture a (nuclear) weapon."

This did not stop defense secretary Robert Gates speaking after a NATO meeting in Brussels on June 11, from whipping out the rusty device beloved of the Bush administration: "I think everyone agrees we have some more time, including the Israelis. …I would say the intelligence estimates range from one to three years."

In the Middle East meanwhile, events are rushing forward with explosive haste, impelled in the last ten days by the Turkish-led flotilla for breaking the Gaza blockade and the Israeli commando raid to intercept it.

The rise of the Turkish-Iranian alliance has not only thrust America and Israel to the wings the Middle East stage, but is deeply alarming Cairo, Riyadh, the Gulf emirate and even Syria. They suddenly see Prime minister Recep Erdogan and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dictating the region's agenda with no one there to stop them.

Within days, the balance of power in the region has been reshuffled to extend way beyond Tehran's hand on Hizballah's levers in Beirut and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza. Iran has acquired an important member of NATO as a proactive ally.

Gates' only comment on this development was: "I was disappointed by the Turkey vote on the Iranian sanctions. That said, Turkey is a decades-long ally of the US and a member of NATO. Turkey continues to play a critical part in the alliance."

Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and defense minster Ehud Barak are just as laggard in addressing the formidable new axis looming over the region and the Jewish state, in particular. They are too busy quibbling with Washington over the shape of the impartial commission the UN has demanded for probing Israel's actions against the Turkish-led flotilla of May 31 - though certainly not, perish the thought, Turkey's role or the Erdogan government's close ties with the IHH terrorists aboard the Turkish ship.

What Netanyahu and Barak have not told the public is that the dickering with the Obama administration has dragged out for five days because the US wants the impartial commission empowered to question the Israeli officers and soldiers who raided the Mavi Marmara in a clash which left 9 Turks dead, and several wounded including six Israel commandos.

If Obama has his way, Israeli soldiers will for the first time face questioning by American and European investigators. Israeli leaders understand that compliance would add fuel to the international campaign for de-legitimizing the Jewish state as a sovereign state and respectable member of the world community of nations. The Israelli Defense Forces would be further immobilized under a sustained international campaign to discredit them on the lines of the Goldstone report on the Gaza war - only this time Washington is taking the lead in the de-legitimacy campaign....
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  #50  
Old 06-12-2010, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Paparock View Post
The Saudi air corridor offered Israel for an attack on Iran reported in the London Times of Saturday, June 12, was an old story rehashed by Riyadh in the hope of egging the US and Israel on to break free of their self-imposed restraints and halt Iran's drive for a nuclear bomb before it is too late.
For anyone who missed it, attached is a link to the original London Times article being referrenced.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7148555.ece
To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert.

"The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way," said a US defence source in the area. "They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department."

Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid.
Equally interesting is the assertion made in the article that the IDF would already have carried out such an operation, if Washington had not stood in the way:
Passing over Iraq would require at least tacit agreement to the raid from Washington. So far, the Obama Administration has refused to give its approval as it pursues a diplomatic solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Military analysts say Israel has held back only because of this failure to secure consensus from America and Arab states.
I used to work with someone who spent two years in Saudi Arabia, ensuring that the US-supplied warplanes flown by the Royal Saudi Air Force received the necessary maintenance and support. From his testimony, I would have to agree: The Saudis hate the Shiites even more than they hate the Jews.
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Old 06-12-2010, 10:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haamimhagolan View Post
From his testimony, I would have to agree: The Saudis hate the Shiites even more than they hate the Jews.
Of course, it really is just Saudi self interest. Israel poses no threat to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Iran does.

From the Times article:

Quote:
Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing,” said one.

The four main targets for any raid on Iran would be the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.
Questions I have are:

1. For what duration does Israel have use of this corridor across Saudi Arabia ? One strike ? A day ? Two days ? Longer ? The answer to this will determine if the initial Israeli strike hits just Iranian nuclear production facilities, or instead can begin with Iranian command and control, air defense, and strategic rocket forces, and then deal with the less time-sensitive nuclear production facilities in subsequent strikes.

2. What agreements do Saudi Arabia and Israel have should Iran retaliate against Israeli cities ?

3. What agreements do Saudi Arabia and Egypt have should Iran retaliate against Saudi Arabia ? Egypt is the Saudi ally both most likely to support a strike on Iran and also has a significant air force that could be used to reinforce Saudi defenses. (Just to mention, I believe that this was the real point of the Egyptian exercises known as ‘Badr-2010’.)

And will anyone tell the US ? Or is it US policy to give Israel a "red light", but nevertheless be prepared to cope with a Iranian retaliatory effort to block the Straits of Hormuz ? (I refer to this thread: US Naval forces massing near Iran.)
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Old 06-13-2010, 02:16 PM
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  #53  
Old 06-22-2010, 10:47 PM
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Arrow Saudis: Green Light for Israeli Attack on Iran »

Saudis: Green Light for Israeli Attack on Iran
The Arabs and Jews take matters into their own hands
by Ryan Mauro





The Iranian regime does not just seek the destruction of Israel, but seeks to overthrow the pro-American Sunni Arab regimes, ushering in an era of Shiite dominance of the region. These Arab countries, despite their public denials, are wishing for the very scenario that the Obama Administration is trying to prevent: An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And there are growing signs that such a strike is being prepared for.

The call for a “Greater Iran” stretching from Palestine to Afghanistan and vanquishing Saudi Wahhabism by the head of Hezbollah in Iran shocked the media, but the entire Middle East was already well-aware of this objective. The Iranians waged a proxy war against Yemen and Saudi Arabia last year, providing a tremendous amount of support to the radical Shiite Houthi rebels. The regime has been trying to dominate Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories via proxies, and the governments of the Arabian Peninsula have accused Iran of stirring up unrest in their lands for years.

“The Saudis are as threatened as Israel by Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” Aaron Klein, the Jerusalem Bureau Chief of WorldNetDaily.com, told FrontPage. He has broken numerous stories about the fear of Iran expressed by Arab officials behind the scenes.

“Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia secretly back an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Saudis are particularly active in coordinating with Israel since their oil interests are at stake in a major war,” Klein said.

The Saudis have been sharing intelligence with Israel about Iran and they reportedly told the head of Mossad in early 2009 that Saudi air space could be used to carry out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. There have been consistent reports of secret high-level meetings between Israeli and Saudi officials over the past two years, and the Saudis have just simulated a scenario where Israeli aircraft pass over a thin stretch of their territory to attack Iran to make sure there is not a confrontation. Predictably, the Saudis have denied the arrangement, saying they’ll never allow their nation to be used to attack another country.

The panic over Iran’s activities in the region and pursuit of nuclear weapons capabilities can be clearly seen in the Saudi media and Saudi officials are increasing the tempo of the warnings. The former Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Prince Turki al-Faisal, spoke in Beirut last month and said that the Arabs must do everything they can to stop Iran from going nuclear. He said that if Iran succeeds in doing so, the situation is irreversible and the Arabs will face an increasing danger. Of course, he combined his call to stop Iran with criticism of Israel’s own nuclear stockpile, as is to be expected.

Egyptian officials are also taking a stronger line, particularly since the arrest of 49 Hezbollah members in the country planning attacks on Israeli targets. Hezbollah reacted to the arrests by calling for the overthrow of the more moderate regimes in the region, including that of Egypt. The Egyptian Prime Minister accurately said that Hezbollah had “virtually declared war.” On May 3, the former ambassador to Israel clearly stated on Egyptian television that Iran is not a friend. Last July, the Egyptians publicly allowed Israel to send two missile boats and a Dolphin-class nuclear-capable submarine to transit the Suez Canal, practicing a potential deployment for a strike on Iran. And last week, over a dozen U.S. ships and at least one Israeli warship transited the Suez Canal with Egyptian forces providing security. This comes as a senior Egyptian security official anonymously said that his government sees an Israeli strike on Iran happening as early as this July.

There are more countries than just Egypt and Saudi Arabia supporting an Israeli strike. A member of Israel’s parliament from the Likud Party said in March that a “wall-to-wall coalition” of Muslim countries had secretly contacted Israel, some of whom the Israelis do not even have diplomatic relations with, expressing their support for any measure taken to stop Iran.

In January, for the first time, an Israeli minister visited the United Arab Emirates to participate in an energy conference and the UAE teamed up with the Saudis to pressure China into supporting sanctions on Iran. Algeria has accused Iran of supporting terrorists fighting the government, and Morocco cut off ties with Iran in March 2009 because of their promotion of extremist Shiite Islam through non-governmental organizations.

Ethiopia is an opponent of two of Iran’s allies, Sudan and Eritrea, and has accused the latter of supporting Somali terrorists that they have gone to war with. Even Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has frequently called Hamas a puppet of the Iranians and has blamed them for Israel’s 2009 offensive into Gaza. The other countries in the Arabian Peninsula have had their own problems with Iranian meddling. The Israeli MP’s claim is not far-fetched.

This doesn’t mean that an Israeli strike on Iran doesn’t bring serious risks to the Sunni Arabs, though. Iran has repeatedly stated that Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases will be retaliated against if an attack happens. The Arabs, however, feel they have no other choice but to support Israel, especially considering they will likely be attacked regardless of whether they permit the strikes.

“There’s too much at stake for them,” Klein said. “They are betting an Israeli strike, as dangerous as it is, will be successful.”

The Arab countries also have to be concerned about domestic unrest in the aftermath of an attack. However, a recent poll indicates this will not significantly affect the stability of their governments. They were able to remain in power when the U.S. invaded Iraq, an action more infuriating to their populations because of their shared Arab identity.

A Pew Research Center poll dated June 17, 2010 found that strong majorities of the people in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt view Iran negatively, lack confidence in Ahmadinejad and oppose Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. A majority of those in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon opposing a nuclear-armed Iran actually favor the use of military force if necessary to stop them. The popular backlash resulting from an Israeli strike may not be as much of a threat as is assumed.

Ironically, these Arab countries appear to be actually promoting Israeli military action against Iran while the U.S. is trying to stop it. If Israel ultimately decides to strike Iran, the Arabs will join the Obama Administration in condemning them—but privately, they will be thanking their Jewish adversaries for saving them from having to handle a nuclear Iran, an enemy far more threatening to them than Israel ever was.

This article was sponsored by Stand Up America.
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  #54  
Old 06-24-2010, 03:45 AM
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In Military Review, Amitai Etzioni suggests a fourth strategy for preventing Iran from going nuclear:
Quote:
The fact that all these objections deal with bombing nuclear sites points to a different military option. It is one that has not been discussed in public so far and at first blush may seem controversial. Note should be hence taken that it has been previously employed, indeed on several occasions. The basic approach seeks not to degrade Iran’s nuclear capacities (the aim of bombing) but to compel the regime to change its behavior, by causing ever-higher levels of “pain.” It starts with demanding that Iran live up to its international obligations and open up its nuclear sites by a given date, to demonstrate that they are not serving a military program. If this demand is not heeded, the next step would entail bombing of Iran’s nonnuclear military assets (such as the headquarters and encampments of the Revolutionary Guard, air defense installations and radar sites, missile sites, and naval vessels that might be used against oil shipments). If such bombing does not elicit the required response, the bombing of select dual-use assets will be undertaken, including key elements of the infrastructure, like bridges, railroad stations, and other such assets, just the way the U.S. did in Germany and Japan in World War II. (The reference is to dual-use assets, that can be bombed at night, even after proper warning, to minimize civilian casualties, and not to purely civilian targets such as was done in Dresden and Tokyo.) If still more tightening of the screws is needed, Iran could be declared a no-fly zone, the way parts of Iraq were even before Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. This kind of military action is akin to sanctions—causing “pain” in order to change behavior, albeit by much more powerful means.
(emphasis mine)

This strategy reminds me of that suggested by Thomas Schelling in Arms and Influence and its consequent policy manifestation: Operation Rolling Thunder. Etzioni, however, avoids making any comparison with Vietnam, as perhaps he should, given that Rolling Thunder is generally considered a failure. (I leave more discussion here to experts on Vietnam.)

In any event, I am less than sold--but it is interesting to see a fresh approach to the Iran nuclear problem. Unfortunately, there does not remain a whole lot of time for innovation.
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Old 06-24-2010, 07:24 AM
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people are TOO worried about this crap.
suppose iran gets a nuke
what exactly can they do with it ?
using it against israel would result in the entire middle east turning into a giant impact crater.
and if you can't USE them, then there is no real value to them.
the only REAL use nukes have is as deterence against attack, but there is no need to attack iran militaraly in order to make it give up its plans.
there is a MUCH more powerful weapon then an army
economics

iran is under terrible sanctions right now, with the EU, US congress, and even the UAE sanctioning their most important assets
the crude oil export trade (80% of iran's source of income)
and thats just for SUSPECTING that they are going for a bomb
just imagine what they would do to them if they ever DID get a bomb

add to that the fact that the iranian regime has lost the support of its people, and is now little more then a military junta, and you don't have all that long until iran caves under the pressure and agrees to call it quits about the nuclear plans

but more importantly, RUSSIA isn't going to allow them to gain nukes.
that big reactor that they have been building in bushehr was suppose to be operation TEN YEARS AGO
but the russians keep pushing it back because of "technical" issues
except that there are not technical issues, they are simply not willing to let iran become a nuclear entity
they are perfectly willing to continue to milk them dry for cash, but they would never actually GIVE them what they want

in short, the iranian nuclear arms program is a joke, and the punchline is that the only REAL threat it posses to israel, is if the israelis believe in that crap and start fearing it
it could have bad effects on the economy as companies fear investing in israel
or it could de-moralize people into leaving the country
in other words, there is LITTERALY nothing to fear, but fear itself
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Old 06-24-2010, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
people are TOO worried about this crap.
suppose iran gets a nuke
what exactly can they do with it ?
using it against israel would result in the entire middle east turning into a giant impact crater.
and if you can't USE them, then there is no real value to them.
the only REAL use nukes have is as deterence against attack, but there is no need to attack iran militaraly in order to make it give up its plans.
Allowing a hostile nuclear power to dominate the geographic source of much of the world's oil supplies is not good for the US, or the West in general.

But for Israel, in a nutshell:

1) Even countries with no intent to destroy each other can come perilously close to central nuclear war. Cold War example: US vs USSR in the Cuban missile crisis.

2) Allies of a new nuclear power tend to become more aggressive. Cold War example: USSR explodes "Little Joe" in 1949, North Korea invades South Korea 1950.

What is unthinkable under normal circumstances can become a real possibility when events start to spiral out of control.
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Old 06-24-2010, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
people are TOO worried about this crap. suppose iran gets a nuke what exactly can they do with it ? using it against israel would result in the entire middle east turning into a giant impact crater
Iran is ruled by a small band of power crazed ayatollahs, who tell their people that if they die in the act of killing infidels, they will all go to paradise and receive 72 virgins. These same ayatollahs demonstrated aptly, during eight years of war with Iraq, that they could hardly care less about the deaths of a few hundred thousand of their own countrymen in the name of a holy war. They sent teenage boys - without rifles - across mine fields to clear the way for the Iranian army to advance. Despite years of bombardment by Iraqi Scud missiles, they took no preventative, civil defense measures to mitigate the risk to their own population. No bomb shelters, no air raid drills - just let them die and parade about the scene and declare the deaths a great victory for Islam. They spent more money on building monuments to the martyrs after they were killed than they ever did on preventing civilian casualties in the first place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
iran is under terrible sanctions right now, with the EU, US congress, and even the UAE sanctioning their most important assets

And all of the sanctions have done nothing to slow their desire for nuclear weapons. Do the ayatollahs care how many of their people don't have jobs? Of course not. And the oil still flows freely - with China recently signing a deal for the purchase of Iranian oil. No one has shut down their source of income. They've merely made it more difficult to openly buy arms with it. Guess they'll have to use the black market to buy the missile and bomb-making components they need. Oh well. They still have enough money to buy off enough officials to get what they want in the end.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
but more importantly, RUSSIA isn't going to allow them to gain nukes. that big reactor that they have been building in bushehr was suppose to be operation TEN YEARS AGO

Iran is attempting to gain nuclear weapons by enriching uranium, not by reprocessing fuel from a Russian reactor. Delays in the Russian reactor have no impact on their primary path to nuclear stardom.
 

The Iranian government has made their goal of wiping Israel off the map openly known. It's no secret. What would Iran do with the bomb? Sooner or later it will fall into the hands of a suicide bomber, bound on a boat for Tel Aviv, and the Iranians will claim plausible deniability regarding the source of the explosion. Was it really an Iranian bomb? Or was it an ex-Soviet weapon that fell into the black market? The world would bemoan the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Israelis and the destruction of Tel Aviv - and then insist that Israel was at fault for its own destruction for not surrenduring more territory to the Arabs, and insist that Israel should do the "Christian thing" and turn the other cheak. Yes, Israeli intelligence would figure out who had sent the weapon, and yes Israel would retaliate in kind (for which they would be condemned), but this will not deter the Iranian ayatollahs in the least. What's a few more hundred thousand dead in Tehran mean to them? That's fewer than were killed during the Iran-Iraq war.
 

The crazy ayatollahs have been open about their objectives: the destruction of Israel, and the establishment of an Islamic regime (of the Shiite variety) across the Middle East. They've come out and said it. We would all be fools not to believe their intentions. Why should they care if a million of their countrymen become martyrs and go to paradise? They will still rule the countryside, which is where their real base of power is - not Tehran with its educated elite.
 

And that is why Iran cannot be allowed to get the bomb.

Last edited by haamimhagolan; 06-24-2010 at 12:31 PM..
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:02 PM
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Arrow Report: IAF aircraft land at Saudi base

Report: IAF aircraft land at Saudi base

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...909732,00.html

Islam Times says Israeli jets unloaded military equipment in Islamic country ahead of possible Iran strike Dudi Cohen Published: 06.23.10


Israeli Air force aircraft landed during the past weekend at a military base in Saudi Arabia and unloaded large quantities of military gear, according to a report published Wednesday by Islamic website Islam Times.

The report, which has questionable credibility, claimed the equipment was unloaded at a base in the city of Tabuk, in the north western part of the country, ahead of a possible strike on Iran.

The controversial report was also published by the Iranian news agency Fars, under the title "Suspicious military activity of the Zionist regime in Saudi Arabia."

According to the report, the IDF built a military base approximately 9 km (5.5 miles) from Tabuk, and while Israeli planes landed there on June 18 and 19, all civilian flights were cancelled at the local airport.

One of the passengers in Tabuk noted that civilians at the airport were not given an explanation for the flight cancellations, but were compensated by the Saudi authorities and accommodated in nearby hotels.

The report further claimed that "the secret relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia became the main topic of conversation among the city's residents."

Another report published two weeks ago claimed Saudi Arabia tested its defense missile systems In order to allow IAF airplanes to pass through its airspace en route to bombarding nuclear facilities in Iran.

Security elements in the Persian Gulf told the London-based Times magazine that Riyadh gave Israel the green light to fly through a narrow airspace in the north of the country, in order to shorten the flight time to the Islamic Republic.

According to the Times, in order to ensure that IAF aircraft are not intercepted by Saudi defense missiles, Riyadh conducted tests to make sure the system does not activate if Israeli planes are detected. After the aircraft clear the area, the system will resume to normal activity.



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Last edited by Paparock; 06-24-2010 at 01:04 PM..
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haamimhagolan View Post
[size=2]Iran is ruled by a small band of power crazed ayatollahs, who tell their people that if they die in the act of killing infidels, they will all go to paradise and receive 72 virgins. These same ayatollahs demonstrated aptly, during eight years of war with Iraq, that they could hardly care less about the deaths of a few hundred thousand of their own countrymen in the name of a holy war. They sent teenage boys - without rifles - across mine fields to clear the way for the Iranian army to advance. Despite years of bombardment by Iraqi Scud missiles, they took no preventative, civil defense measures to mitigate the risk to their own population. No bomb shelters, no air raid drills - just let them die and parade about the scene and declare the deaths a great victory for Islam. They spent more money on building monuments to the martyrs after they were killed than they ever did on preventing civilian casualties in the first place.
and they did ALL of this, from a safe distance
they are perfectly capable of telling OTHER people to go and die, but they are NOT stupid enough to practice what they preach.

and give the newer sanctions a chance to work before writing them off as useless
they just got passed THIS MONTH
previus sanctions have not targeted the iranian oil and gas industry (their main source of income)
these ones, could potentially cripple their entire economy.
you can bet you ass that they would care about that, especially when their own people are disillusioned with their "revolution"

and the idea that they would hand a nuke off to a terrorist group is frankly laughable (no offense meant)
you've got a mistaken impression about the relationship between iran and the terrorist groups they support
they are not part of iran's armed forces
they don't follow orders
their only connection with iran is that they all hate israel
other then that, they have nothing binding them (hamas are sunni arabs, iran are shia persians)
they only assosiate themselves with iran because its convinient for them to do so (funding, weapons, etc)
they have their OWN individual agenda's, and their connection with Iran is something they try to play down (arabs, historiclly, don't like iranians)
giving a nuke to an ally who is only your ally out of a shared hatered is a move that iran would not make.

Last edited by bladeofdarkness; 06-24-2010 at 02:17 PM..
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Old 06-24-2010, 11:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
they are perfectly capable of telling OTHER people to go and die, but they are NOT stupid enough to practice what they preach.

You are right. If Israel is forced to retaliate against an Iranian nuclear provocation, Tehran will be a smoldering cinder, and the ayatollahs will be elsewhere, hiding in a bunker. The fact that their countrymen have died by the hundreds of thousands will matter to them no more now than it did during the Iran-Iraq War.
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
and give the newer sanctions a chance to work before writing them off as useless.

These are not the "crippling sanctions" that the Obama Administration said they would impose a year ago. These sanctions are a compromise - to win Russian and Chinese support.
 
And when the curren round of sanctions prove to be ineffective, then what? Another round of sanctions? The Obama Administration doesn't seem to get the picture. If sanctions fail, then other contingecies must be available - which means that the preparations must start now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
previus sanctions have not targeted the iranian oil and gas industry (their main source of income) these ones, could potentially cripple their entire economy.

What are you talking about? The Obama Administration said they would go after Iran's oil industry if negotiations failed. But the latest round of sanctions do nothing of the sort:
Crucially, the new sanctions do not affect oil exports, the lifeblood of Iran's economy, because targeting them would have cost the U.S. essential support from Russia and China which have strong economic ties with Tehran. The Russians and Chinese also nixed any ban on gasoline imports because it would hurt the Iranian people and watered down tough financial and shipping sanctions proposed by the U.S. and its allies.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...DdsQwD9G87VIG0
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
and the idea that they would hand a nuke off to a terrorist group is frankly laughable . . . other then that, they have nothing binding them (hamas are sunni arabs, iran are shia persians).

Hezbollah is Shiite, not Sunni. Hezbollah owes its very existence to Iran. Without Iranian arms and funding flowing into Lebanon, Hezbollah would have ceased to exist once Israel withdrew from Lebanon. Instead, Hezbollah now sits in the Lebanese government, and commands a private army that is better equipped than Lebanon's own national armed forces. If you don't think that Hezbollah and Iran would cooperate in a major terrorist attack against Israel, then you must not have heard of the 1992 bombing of Israel's embassy in Argentina, or the 1994 bombing of Buenos Aires' Jewish community center.
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
giving a nuke to an ally who is only your ally out of a shared hatered is a move that iran would not make.

So would you bet your life on it? Would you also bet the lives of your parents, your siblings, your spouse, your children, and everyone you know?
 
In 1933 no one took Adolf Hitler's threats to eradicate the Jewish people seriously, not even most Jews. Moreover, in 1933 the Jews had no army to defend themselves - no air force, no navy, no tanks, nothing.

It is now 2010 - and Israel has learned their bitter lesson the hard way. When the Iranian leadership says that it is their goal to wipe Israel off the map, it is not an idle threat. Given the ability to act on their delusional visions of a new Islamic Reich, the Iranians will do so - which is why Israel can, and indeed must prepare for the very real (some would say likely) possibility that the sanctions will fail.
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